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Python数据分析实战:美联储缩表如何引发金银10%与20%的闪崩

  • 2026-01-31 19:15:45
Python数据分析实战:美联储缩表如何引发金银10%与20%的闪崩

今天讲讲最近最热门的黄金、白银,上周五黄金下降10%,白银下降20%,很多朋友一头雾水不明白为什么,其实原因很简单,就是美联储的货币政策(扩表和缩表)对全球资产价格的影响。

1、美联储的潮汐魔法

当美联储处于扩表周期的时候,就拧开水龙头向市场注入纸钞,造成流动性泛滥,导致资产价格普遍上涨,这就像水位上升船只被动托高。

在通达信中衡量M2可以使用这个函数

"38_5_M2$C";

当美联储处于缩表时间,就像拔掉了水龙头管子,从市场抽回流动性,就必然导致所有的资产价格下降,水位下降,船只被搁浅。

2、风险与顿悟

这告诉我们不止要关注自己的船,更要站在全球的视角,从全球流动性海平面去观察变化。历史的经验告诉我们,选择大于努力,但在美元潮汐中,周期比选择更重要。

3、资产表现逻辑

货币超发将会导致全球资产价格上升,没有一处是避风港。此刻黄金和全球股市同向波动,同时受到流动性潮汐影响。

Python源代码获取,美债/GDP等数据

import jsonimport pandas as pdimport matplotlib.pyplot as pltimport matplotlib.dates as mdatesimport matplotlib.animation as animationplt.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['SimHei']  # 指定中文字体plt.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False# 解决负号显示问题defread_data_from_csv():# 读取csv    df_debt = pd.read_csv('DEBT.csv')    df_gdp = pd.read_csv('GDP.csv')    df_percent = pd.read_csv('PercentOfGDP.csv')# 合并数据    df = df_debt.merge(df_gdp, on='date', how='inner').merge(df_percent, on='date', how='inner')# 修改日期    df['date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['date'], format='%Y')# 修改数据单位, 默认是10亿美元, 改成万亿美元    df['debt'] = round(df['debt'] / 10002)    df['GDP'] = round(df['GDP'] / 10002)    df['percent'] = round(df['percent'], 2)    print(df)return df# 更新函数defupdate(frame, df, ax1, ax2, fig):    frame = frame if frame < df.shape[0else (df.shape[0] - 1)# 清除当前轴内容    ax1.clear()    ax2.clear()    x = df['date'][:frame+1]    y1 = df['debt'][:frame+1]    y2 = df['GDP'][:frame+1]    y3 = df['percent'][:frame+1]    bar_offset = pd.DateOffset(days=60)    bar_width = 120# 1.重新绘制美债数据    bars = ax1.bar(x-bar_offset, y1, label='美债', color='red', width=bar_width)# 最后一个柱状图添加数值标签    xd = df.iloc[frame]['date']    yd = df.iloc[frame]['debt']    ax1.text(xd, yd, f' 美债:{yd:.2f}', ha='left', va='bottom', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold', color='red')# 2.重新绘制GDP数据    bars = ax1.bar(x+bar_offset, y2, label='GDP', color='blue', width=bar_width)# 最后一个柱状图添加数值标签    xg = df.iloc[frame]['date']    yg = df.iloc[frame]['GDP']    ax1.text(xg, yg, f' GDP:{yg:.2f}', ha='left', va='bottom', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold', color='blue')# 3.重新绘制百分比数据    ax2.plot(x, y3, label='百分比(美债/GDP)', linestyle='-', linewidth=1, color='orange')# 在折线末端添加圆点    xp = df.iloc[frame]['date']    yp = df.iloc[frame]['percent']    ax2.plot(xp, yp, marker='o', markersize=3, markerfacecolor='orange', markeredgecolor='orange')# 添加数值标签    ax2.text(xp, yp, f' {yp:.2f}%', ha='left', va='bottom', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold', color='orange')# 设置标签、标题    ax1.set_title('美国联邦政府债务规模(1939-2025)', loc='center', fontsize=20, fontweight='bold', pad=10)    ax1.set_xlabel('年份', fontsize=10, labelpad=5)    ax1.set_ylabel('万亿美元', fontsize=10)    ax2.set_ylabel('百分比', fontsize=10)# 合并图例    lines1, labels1 = ax1.get_legend_handles_labels()    lines2, labels2 = ax2.get_legend_handles_labels()    ax1.legend(lines1 + lines2, labels1 + labels2, loc='upper left')# 设置y2位置和范围    ax2.yaxis.set_label_position('right')    ax2.set_ylim(20200)# 设置x轴比例    ax1.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))# 设置后面的网格    ax1.grid(which='major', axis='y', linestyle='-', color='lightgray')    ax1.relim()    ax1.autoscale_view()# 强制重绘图形    fig.canvas.draw_idle()return ax1.lines, ax2.lines  # 返回所有线条对象defmake_debt_animation(df):# 创建图形和坐标轴    fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(158))    ax2 = ax1.twinx()# 创建动画    ani = animation.FuncAnimation(        fig,         update,         frames=df.shape[0]+5,   # 多几秒停顿        fargs=(df, ax1, ax2, fig),        repeat=False,        interval=250    )#print('正在生成动画文件,请稍候...')#ani.save('debt.gif', writer='pillow', fps=4, dpi=100)#writer   = animation.FFMpegWriter(fps=4, metadata=dict(artist='Fei'), bitrate=128000)#ani.save('debt.mp4', writer=writer)#ani.save('debt.mp4', writer='ffmpeg')    plt.show()if __name__ == '__main__':# 0.数据获取, 美债/GDP等数据, 均来自美联储官网:# 美债: Gross Federal Debt (FYGFD) | FRED | St. Louis Fed# 美GDP: Gross Domestic Product (GDPA) | FRED | St. Louis F...# 美债占GDP百分比: Gross Federal Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Pr...## 截至2025-12-11日, 美GDP数据仅包含至2024年, 其他两项仅包含至2023年, # 美国实时债务数据: U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time# 补齐了2023-2025年美债和GDP数据# 1.整合数据    df = read_data_from_csv()# 2.制作折线图动画    make_debt_animation(df)

风险提示:指标仅仅就是提供技术研究和学习交流使用。市场一致有很强的不确定性,所有基于指标的决策判断都要小心谨慎,且需要自行承担风险,不构成任何投资建议。本文所述模型算法仅限学术探讨,指标公式作为知识免费分享,"基于开源数据集的理论推演",仅用于学习交流。

通达信Logistic Equation增长率源代码

N:=10;LIJINW1:=C-REF(C,N);LIJINW2:=HHV(H,N)-LLV(L,N);LIJINW3:=IF(LIJINW2>0,LIJINW1*(1-LIJINW1/LIJINW2),0);LIJINW4:=-1*(-LIJINW1)*(1-(-LIJINW1)/LIJINW2);LIJINW5:=LIJINW3;LIJINW6:=LIJINW2*0.5;LIJINW7:=-LIJINW6;STICKLINE(LIJINW5<LIJINW7,H,L,3,1),COLORGREEN;STICKLINE(LIJINW4>LIJINW6,H,L,3,1),COLORRED;STICKLINE(LIJINW4<=LIJINW6&&LIJINW5>=LIJINW7,H,L,3,1),COLORWHITE;

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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000877s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=f_mffb;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.001084s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000344s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000295s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000654s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000264s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000691s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 470668 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000527s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1770490333 WHERE `id` = 470668 [ RunTime:0.012857s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 66 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000397s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 470668 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000579s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 470668 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000385s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 470668 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.001003s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 470668 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.017289s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 470668 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001190s ]
0.181977s